Monday, July 19, 2010
The Much Forgotten Actuarial Nightmare
I post this up top because 60 Minutes did a bang up job interviewing Controller General David Walker of the GAO back in 2007. If you want to skip to the two most important parts of this clip try going to 4:50. Walker points out that Medicare is 5 times more problematic and economically irresponsible than Social Security. Yet everyone talks about how expensive Social Security is, and why we can't afford it (read the boomers). Ever noticed how no one seems to talk about Medicare being expensive?
Well Walker noticed and he points out the actuarial nightmare that we are currently living in and points out how even if you paint our current situation with unlikely scenarios like we invest trillions in T-Bond at the current bond rates we still probably won't make it. It actually makes me a little sick to my stomach. The irresponsibility is terribly rampant right now. I might mention, that ineptitude and lack of leadership have been the key issues. I personally feel we have had a brain drain at the top since the mid 90's.
This video is now in All Star status for us bloggers. It is right up there with the Santelli rant. It now seems so sage like yet we are really only a couple of years into his prediction. In reality the boomers start to turn 65 this year and next year.
How dire was his pre-retirement predictions? Walker really did say that the impending doom really was the unraveling of the Republic, did he not?
You see, sometimes, I think that we in this life, have the problem of not taking things seriously enough. We are used to flipping on the tele' and watching American Idol, and America's Got Talent, and Two and a Half Men. We laugh, we drink beer and we pretend this all is not happening. Yet in the same way the sun tucks below the horizon light disappears in the most numbing moments.
You see the real truth is that our dollar is being destructed currently, and debt is being accumulated. It is hard to think back, but it has only been a couple of months since the horrendous healthcare bill passed.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Love and War
There has been a palpable feeling of discontent and unrest in the markets lately. The radio ads filled with commercials for Chapter 7's, debt consolidation, pay day loans. The vultures are getting rich off of the dead and dying. Are you not a little amazed at the plight we find ourselves in? Here in California the unemployment rate is 12.7%. It is 3% higher than the national rate average and with an estimated 2009 population of 36,961,664, that is a significant amount of people not working. Given unemployment does not count all of the young and the old but lets be frank - roaming around our state right now is an estimated 2.4 million http://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/california/ working age adults with NO JOB. How does that feel to you???
Did you know that we actually have 13% of our state below poverty level? Does that concern you at all?
Do you think we are going to create 2.5 million new jobs in the next year in the state of California? We will not. Our state is in decline. It is sad, I know. But we are actually, currently in descent at an increasing rate. Business is leaving. It is just too expensive to do business here.
Do you remember the hub bub that Schwarzenegger rode into Sacramento with? Have you ever seen a 250 pound ex-bodybuilder with his tail tucked between his legs before? In January he will. The NY Times just reported that his approval rating has not raised above 30% since May of 2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/weekinreview/11steinhauer.html?pagewanted=all
It is sad, really.
I am playing the violin right now. The two political horses in the race now are doomed. They are like cattle staring at the big red barn at the end of the field. Whitman is businesswoman. She CEO'ed a company called Ebay. You know how Ebay makes money? They nickel and dime sellers, buyers and small businesses. They got very rich doing it. She is one of their nouveau riche. A Silicon Valley success story. Her $1.3 billion dollar bank account seem to attest to the fact she is not like you and me.
When you are elite, you think different. You think righteously, indignantly. You believe you are right because your life proves you are right. Your convictions have foisted you to the top.
But tell me that you can save a state in decline from falling off of the map. Dollars in bank account do not equal ability to lead us out of the depths. Hubris found Achilles. I am really not making this an attack on Whitman, in reality. I won't be voting for Brown either. But I really think at this point the result will be similar. Whitman will meet with the gridlock that Arnold did. But no matter who goes in, remember the direction streams flow down in Spring.
Brown knows we are broken, but is this not just the same fodder that Poizner used ineffectively against her in the primary. It is hollow. Brown, she will not engage you like she did not engage Poizner or the press. She learned from Obama, who learned from Clinton who learned from Lord knows where. You stay out of the trenches and beat them with money and ads, you win by all means and you vehemently deny attacks true or false.
We are heading into the great dance that is the California election season. You will see and hear things you never thought of before, and then in the end the winner will be the one with the most dollars. Whitman wins. I say this for posterity and if wrong I will gladly (thankfully) eat my words.
God save our beautiful state.
Did you know that we actually have 13% of our state below poverty level? Does that concern you at all?
Do you think we are going to create 2.5 million new jobs in the next year in the state of California? We will not. Our state is in decline. It is sad, I know. But we are actually, currently in descent at an increasing rate. Business is leaving. It is just too expensive to do business here.
Do you remember the hub bub that Schwarzenegger rode into Sacramento with? Have you ever seen a 250 pound ex-bodybuilder with his tail tucked between his legs before? In January he will. The NY Times just reported that his approval rating has not raised above 30% since May of 2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/weekinreview/11steinhauer.html?pagewanted=all
It is sad, really.
I am playing the violin right now. The two political horses in the race now are doomed. They are like cattle staring at the big red barn at the end of the field. Whitman is businesswoman. She CEO'ed a company called Ebay. You know how Ebay makes money? They nickel and dime sellers, buyers and small businesses. They got very rich doing it. She is one of their nouveau riche. A Silicon Valley success story. Her $1.3 billion dollar bank account seem to attest to the fact she is not like you and me.
When you are elite, you think different. You think righteously, indignantly. You believe you are right because your life proves you are right. Your convictions have foisted you to the top.
But tell me that you can save a state in decline from falling off of the map. Dollars in bank account do not equal ability to lead us out of the depths. Hubris found Achilles. I am really not making this an attack on Whitman, in reality. I won't be voting for Brown either. But I really think at this point the result will be similar. Whitman will meet with the gridlock that Arnold did. But no matter who goes in, remember the direction streams flow down in Spring.
Brown knows we are broken, but is this not just the same fodder that Poizner used ineffectively against her in the primary. It is hollow. Brown, she will not engage you like she did not engage Poizner or the press. She learned from Obama, who learned from Clinton who learned from Lord knows where. You stay out of the trenches and beat them with money and ads, you win by all means and you vehemently deny attacks true or false.
We are heading into the great dance that is the California election season. You will see and hear things you never thought of before, and then in the end the winner will be the one with the most dollars. Whitman wins. I say this for posterity and if wrong I will gladly (thankfully) eat my words.
God save our beautiful state.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
